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Flash capex, bit growth and ASP all headed south
The 2% drop comes on top of a 10% capex cut last year.
As a result, 92/96-layer 3D NAND products will only account for about 32% of the industry’s total output by the end of 2019, while the portion of 64/72-layer products remains over 50%.
Major manufacturers have been in mass production of 92/96-layer 3D NAND since Q418.
Bit output growth of NAND Flash is expected to slow from 2018’s 45% to around 38% in 2019.
Samsung’s bit output growth is expected to be around 35% as it reduces 2D NAND capacity.
Hynix’ bit growth is is expected to be 50%.
Toshiba/Western Digital bit growth is put at 35%.
Micron/Intel’s bit growth is forecast st 40%.
DRAMeXchange expects an ASP decline of 20% in 1Q19, and a further decline of nearly 15% QoQ in 2Q19.
Thereafter, a 10% decline per quarter is expected with the ASP at the end of 2019 being half what it is now.
As a result, 92/96-layer 3D NAND products will only account for about 32% of the industry’s total output by the end of 2019, while the portion of 64/72-layer products remains over 50%.
Major manufacturers have been in mass production of 92/96-layer 3D NAND since Q418.
Bit output growth of NAND Flash is expected to slow from 2018’s 45% to around 38% in 2019.
Samsung’s bit output growth is expected to be around 35% as it reduces 2D NAND capacity.
Hynix’ bit growth is is expected to be 50%.
Toshiba/Western Digital bit growth is put at 35%.
Micron/Intel’s bit growth is forecast st 40%.
DRAMeXchange expects an ASP decline of 20% in 1Q19, and a further decline of nearly 15% QoQ in 2Q19.
Thereafter, a 10% decline per quarter is expected with the ASP at the end of 2019 being half what it is now.